Interesting look at where Netflix is today and how it got there.
I don't think there is any way the stock ever gets back to the $300 neighborhood it was in 2011 but I am bullish on the stock. I think the company can either get acquired or it can become the on-line equivalent of HBO.
HBO has a big advantage in original programming because of its long history and the subscribers expectations of quality from the HBO brand but Netflix's on-demand library beats HBO's channels showing the same movies over and over.
The article is worth the read.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Monday, January 7, 2013
Roku and Time Warner
Interesting to note that Roku will be able to make available 300 channels to Time Warner Cable subscribers. This means that Roku is becoming a defacto replacement for a normal TWC set top for TWC subscribers.
I have beaten this drum before - a move like this is good for all involved. TWC doesn't have the opex or headaches involved in supporting additional STB's. Actually expenses should reduce as some existing STB are replaced - plus there is no truck roll costs involved when a subscriber adds a Roku box. Roku gets a great revenue opportunity as they get to market to millions of TWC subscribers. For the customer - there are a number of advantages of owning a Roku box that they will now be able to take advantage of. A win-win-win situation.
I also firmly believe that Apple will eventually announce both a new Apple TV box and a relationship with larger operators like TWC. They won't let Roku have all the fun (or all the market)
I have beaten this drum before - a move like this is good for all involved. TWC doesn't have the opex or headaches involved in supporting additional STB's. Actually expenses should reduce as some existing STB are replaced - plus there is no truck roll costs involved when a subscriber adds a Roku box. Roku gets a great revenue opportunity as they get to market to millions of TWC subscribers. For the customer - there are a number of advantages of owning a Roku box that they will now be able to take advantage of. A win-win-win situation.
I also firmly believe that Apple will eventually announce both a new Apple TV box and a relationship with larger operators like TWC. They won't let Roku have all the fun (or all the market)
Friday, January 4, 2013
Tiered Cable Data Plans
Interesting look at possible tiered data plans for heavy data users. My initial reaction is "big deal".
Near the end of the article it is mentioned that Comcast has a data tier that allows for "300 gigabits per month - or about 130 hours of Netflix HD videos." Think about that for a minute. That's 4.33 hours of HD video a day. Good chance someone doing that is probably a cord cutter - and why should the cable company subsidize Netflix? Plus - as encoding algorithms advance less and less bandwidth will be needed for the same amount of video.
If in the future both cable and telcos will be the equivalent of dumb pipe providers - why shouldn't they get to charge for how much you drink from the pipe?
Near the end of the article it is mentioned that Comcast has a data tier that allows for "300 gigabits per month - or about 130 hours of Netflix HD videos." Think about that for a minute. That's 4.33 hours of HD video a day. Good chance someone doing that is probably a cord cutter - and why should the cable company subsidize Netflix? Plus - as encoding algorithms advance less and less bandwidth will be needed for the same amount of video.
If in the future both cable and telcos will be the equivalent of dumb pipe providers - why shouldn't they get to charge for how much you drink from the pipe?
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Happy Anniversary Apple
The fine folks at The Motley Fools remind us that Apple was incorporated on this day in 1977.
The article also reminds us of who Apple's original competitors were - the Altair 8800, the Radio Shack TRS-80, the Commodore 64 and IBM.
That reminded me that when IBM released their PC they blanketed the airwaves with commercials featuring the cast from M*A*S*H. Amazing to look back and realize that while Apple today is perhaps the most influential company in the world - IBM's are as influential today to PC's as the cast from M*A*S*H is to network primetime TV.
The article also reminds us of who Apple's original competitors were - the Altair 8800, the Radio Shack TRS-80, the Commodore 64 and IBM.
That reminded me that when IBM released their PC they blanketed the airwaves with commercials featuring the cast from M*A*S*H. Amazing to look back and realize that while Apple today is perhaps the most influential company in the world - IBM's are as influential today to PC's as the cast from M*A*S*H is to network primetime TV.
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Apple TV - 5 Reasons Why It Will Crush the Competition
Interesting article giving 5 reasons why Apple TV will crush the competition.
Three quibbles about the article:
1. I think Apple will actually have two products - an Apple TV set top box to be used as a legacy STB replacement for MSO's and other service providers and also an Apple iTV.
2. This iTV product won't crush the competition because there really won't be any. It will be a product unto itself just as the iPhone was when first released. It will be both a TV and computer monitor with built in apps like Siri and other Cuppertino goodies.
3. Still think that videoconferencing will be a killer app for the iTV. This will give Apple entree into the business VTC marketplace which will also allow it to take share in a multi-billion market.
Three quibbles about the article:
1. I think Apple will actually have two products - an Apple TV set top box to be used as a legacy STB replacement for MSO's and other service providers and also an Apple iTV.
2. This iTV product won't crush the competition because there really won't be any. It will be a product unto itself just as the iPhone was when first released. It will be both a TV and computer monitor with built in apps like Siri and other Cuppertino goodies.
3. Still think that videoconferencing will be a killer app for the iTV. This will give Apple entree into the business VTC marketplace which will also allow it to take share in a multi-billion market.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Apple's TV Plans
Brightcove's CEO Jeremy Allaire predicted that Apple will make both a set top box and a TV. Big whoop - I predicted that months ago.
In addition to making my prediction I also explained why that strategy is genius for Apple. Everyone connected to the industry knows that there are billions of dollars worth of legacy MPEG2 set top boxes that would be ripe for upgrading. An Apple TV STB product could help accomplish that with the added bonus that the subscriber may actually pay for the box on their own.
It is the TV, however, that could be the real game-changer. When's the last time you thought of your PC monitor? An Apple TV could be a combination TV / computer monitor and videoconferencing unit. If the product could just grab 10-20% of the markets in those segments then you're talking a product that would be as revolutionary as the iPhone.
An Apple TV would give people reason and incentive to upgrade their TV's at home and their monitors at work. Pure genius.
In addition to making my prediction I also explained why that strategy is genius for Apple. Everyone connected to the industry knows that there are billions of dollars worth of legacy MPEG2 set top boxes that would be ripe for upgrading. An Apple TV STB product could help accomplish that with the added bonus that the subscriber may actually pay for the box on their own.
It is the TV, however, that could be the real game-changer. When's the last time you thought of your PC monitor? An Apple TV could be a combination TV / computer monitor and videoconferencing unit. If the product could just grab 10-20% of the markets in those segments then you're talking a product that would be as revolutionary as the iPhone.
An Apple TV would give people reason and incentive to upgrade their TV's at home and their monitors at work. Pure genius.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Verizon Fios to Stream NFL Network
Interesting development - Verizon Fios has signed an agreement that allows them to stream both the NFL Network and NFL RedZone channels.
My initial thought upon reading the news was that this is just another sign of a growing digital divide in this country. Verizon Fios has pretty much frozen where they will be deployed and the same can be said of most of the major cable operators. So this announcement is just a reminder to most of rural America that there are services out there that they don't have access to because they don't fall into the right "footprint."
Even the people who live in areas with independent FTTH operators probably would not have access to services like the TV Anywhere NFL Network from Verizon Fios because the authentication process today is just so expensive.
I guess people could still use the new Slingbox units that can stream to smart phones and tablets but that's not just the same.
My initial thought upon reading the news was that this is just another sign of a growing digital divide in this country. Verizon Fios has pretty much frozen where they will be deployed and the same can be said of most of the major cable operators. So this announcement is just a reminder to most of rural America that there are services out there that they don't have access to because they don't fall into the right "footprint."
Even the people who live in areas with independent FTTH operators probably would not have access to services like the TV Anywhere NFL Network from Verizon Fios because the authentication process today is just so expensive.
I guess people could still use the new Slingbox units that can stream to smart phones and tablets but that's not just the same.
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