Saturday, November 3, 2012

What Next for Netflix?

Very interesting article looking at Carl Icahn's investment in Netflix. Seems like a smart investment for Icahn as just his involvement has generated buzz that Netflix may be in play and as the article points out - since he owns less than 10% of the company - he can get out at any time. The Netflix stock has increased roughly $10 just in the few days since the announcement of Icahn's investment in the company.

There could be a number of companies that would be interested in swallowing Netflix. Some have mentioned either Amazon or Verizon and I would add Google to that list. But it is Verizon that most interests me.

Verizon has a partnership with Redbox (a Coinstar company) to launch Redbox Instant later this year or Q1 2013. If Verizon were to buy Netflix then they could both gain the lion's share of the movie streaming business and maximize the value of their content agreement obligations which represent the biggest liabilities for companies like Netflix and Redbox. If Verizon does not go after Netflix and someone else does - it will be interesting to see if the purchase price for Netflix is more or less than what Verizon invested in the Redbox joint venture. If it ends up less - then that could be a sign that Verizon did not properly gauge the market for their new venture.

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